My Man Obama

I decided a separate post was required so that I could get out my thoughts on the presidential primaries. I was a politics major after all.

I haven't lived in Illinois since the mid 90's, so I was introduced to Obama with the rest of the nation in 2004. For the record, I have read Audacity of Hope, and hope that he is the next President of the United States. With that all said, I can make an argument to any American on why they should support Obama over McCain, AND McCain has been my favorite candidate on the Republican side all along. Obama not only had another sweep tonight in the primaries, but by overwhelming margins. Still, he gained a slim delegate lead due to Democratic Party (DP) rules. His momentum is growing, and it will be tough for even the negative attacks that are sure to come from the Right in the general election (GE) to stop it. [Editor's Note: I will get into my acknowledgement of the success of the Republic Party in GE's, but can I just point out now how they were able to be known as the "Right" (also known as correct) side.]

Clinton's last stand will come in Texas, and Ohio which falls on the same day. Texas I find interesting because it offers a chance for her campaign to try something that would be a big gamble at a time when the whole game is on the line for their campaign. Obama and his supporters have enjoyed the comparisons between him and JFK, RFK and anyone else who has an airport named after them. And certainly the Clinton's have enjoyed their own comparisons to the "First Family" of 20th Century American Politics. As attentions draw to Texas, wouldn't it be interesting if the Clinton campaign reminds voters that the great ideas of JFK got nowhere while he was President, and it was LBJ, a prominent Texas politician, that achieved legislation moving through Congress because of experience. What a gamble for a democratic nominee to attack the Kennedy legacy in the state where he was assassinated to glorify one of their own and drive home the experience advantage that Clinton claims (can you tell I'm not convinced). The recent backlash by prominent politicians in the Latin American community must be a concern, so all bets may be off.

I'll make a couple more points I feel go unreported and do impact the election. First, I was unable to vote in the New York primaries, and I think many people in other states faced the same dilemma. No, I am not a felon, I am a registered Independent. Primaries are party affairs, and I have not pledged to any of them. Closed primaries, which occur in many of the states that hold "open" elections, limit one of Obama's main bases of support. This is why you see him doing better than Clinton in preliminary national polls of a 2 candidate GE. Many things could change between now and then. Beyond VP choices, one of my criticisms of the DP has been their apparent ignorance of the electoral college.

I will put this in the simplest terms I can. Obama has done well in all contests, and has won (often decisively) in "Red" states and any state the Democrats could claim in the last 20 years. When you look at the traditional swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) and even add Texas, and you have three that haven't held primaries and Florida that didn't count with respect to delegates. He has the potential to create the "Obama Republicans" (equivalent to "Reagan Democrats")

Clinton tried to appeal to the populist base tonight by talking about a raise of the minimum wage to $9.50 before any raise to congressional pay, and her frequent demand that everyone have the congressional health care plan. It's a good start to her "2-minute drill" that I think is the beginning of the end of her campaign. She ignored her failures of tonight. Luckily she seems to have all of her time outs. I just saw a graphic on CNN that showed that if either candidate were to win every remaining state going to the convention that he/she would not have enough delegates for the nomination. McCain has already put his campaign on cruise control, and will have a significant advantage for the GE. With Obama's momentum and a realization of what is on the line, I hope that the Clinton campaign will be willing to withdraw from the race and give the DP and Obama their best chance of victory in November if things continue to go his way.

How negative will she go? I think everyone knows not to count the Clintons out., but Obama seems to have a GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT that if ignored will cripple the DP for years to come. I believe President Clinton has done an incredible amount of damage to his legacy by his actions in this campaign, and if his wife doesn't win the nomination the damage will be tenfold. They both have a lot to lose and neither will go down without a fight. I just hope that some of that rhetoric is true and she really does care more about the outcome of the national election versus the outcome of her own primary race.